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NDC price adjustments #2351

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NDC price adjustments #2351

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9adcdcb
price rescaling
May 21, 2026
dedf8cd
Merge branch 'remindmodel:develop' into NDCPriceAdjustments
RahelMA May 26, 2026
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/declarations.gms
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter(iteration,ttot,all_regi) "Track the changes of p
p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(all_regi) "CO2eq tax in p45_firstNDCyear [T$/GtC]"
p45_taxCO2eq_bau(ttot,all_regi) "level of CO2 taxes in business as usual run [T$/GtC]"
pm_NDCEmiTargetDeviation(ttot,all_regi) "deviation of REMIND emissions to NDC target emissions in last iteration normalized to NDC target emissions [0-1]"
p45_iterDamping "Lower bound on the price rescaling to avoid oscillations and favour convergence, between 0.25 and 1"
$ifthen "%cm_targetDelay%" == "prisma"
p45_delay(all_regi) "delay of NDC targets, defined per region [years]"
$endif
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14 changes: 12 additions & 2 deletions modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms
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Expand Up @@ -44,9 +44,19 @@ if( iteration.val lt 8, p45_adjustExponent = 4;
p45_factorRescaleCO2Tax(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) =
( (p45_CO2eqwoLU_actual(t,regi)+0.0001)/(p45_CO2eqwoLU_goal(t,regi)+0.0001) )**p45_adjustExponent;

*' Concave curve growing from 0 at iteration 0 to 1 at cm_iteration_max https://www.desmos.com/calculator/ekpauw9fxx
p45_iterDamping =
1 - (1 - iteration.val / cm_iteration_max) ** 2;

*' Damping factor to limit the change of the CO2 tax in each iteration, ensures convergence and prevents oscillation'
p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) =
min(max(0.1**p45_adjustExponent, p45_factorRescaleCO2Tax(t,regi)), max(2-iteration.val/15,1.01-iteration.val/10000));
*** use max(0.1, ...) to make sure that negative emission values cause no problem, use +0.0001 such that net zero targets cause no problem
min(5,
max(0.1,
1
+ (p45_factorRescaleCO2Tax(t,regi) - 1)
* p45_iterDamping
));


pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2021 AND t.val le p45_lastNDCyear(regi)) = max(1* sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC,pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) * p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(t,regi) );

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