diff --git a/.yarn/versions/85173f62.yml b/.yarn/versions/85173f62.yml
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..b8db1c186025
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.yarn/versions/85173f62.yml
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+releases:
+  "@yarnpkg/cli": patch
+  "@yarnpkg/plugin-version": patch
+
+declined:
+  - "@yarnpkg/builder"
+  - "@yarnpkg/core"
+  - "@yarnpkg/doctor"
+  - "@yarnpkg/nm"
+  - "@yarnpkg/pnpify"
+  - "@yarnpkg/sdks"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-catalog"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-compat"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-constraints"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-dlx"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-essentials"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-init"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-interactive-tools"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-jsr"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-nm"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-npm-cli"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-pack"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-patch"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-pnp"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-pnpm"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-stage"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-typescript"
+  - "@yarnpkg/plugin-workspace-tools"
diff --git a/packages/acceptance-tests/pkg-tests-specs/sources/commands/version.test.ts b/packages/acceptance-tests/pkg-tests-specs/sources/commands/version.test.ts
index 004c50a6524e..1b9f7b6dd552 100644
--- a/packages/acceptance-tests/pkg-tests-specs/sources/commands/version.test.ts
+++ b/packages/acceptance-tests/pkg-tests-specs/sources/commands/version.test.ts
@@ -294,5 +294,21 @@ describe(`Commands`, () => {
         });
       }),
     );
+
+    test(
+      `it should apply a literal semver bump against the stableVersion base when version is a prerelease (#7025)`,
+      makeTemporaryEnv({
+        version: `1.3.1-alpha`,
+        stableVersion: `1.2.1`,
+      }, async ({path, run, source}) => {
+        await expect(run(`version`, `1.3.1`)).resolves.toMatchObject({
+          code: 0,
+        });
+
+        await expect(xfs.readJsonPromise(`${path}/package.json` as PortablePath)).resolves.toMatchObject({
+          version: `1.3.1`,
+        });
+      }),
+    );
   });
 });
diff --git a/packages/plugin-version/sources/commands/version.ts b/packages/plugin-version/sources/commands/version.ts
index db8e138af0eb..f52ace77c285 100644
--- a/packages/plugin-version/sources/commands/version.ts
+++ b/packages/plugin-version/sources/commands/version.ts
@@ -66,7 +66,13 @@ export default class VersionCommand extends BaseCommand {
     let releaseStrategy: string | null;
     if (isSemver) {
       if (workspace.manifest.version !== null) {
-        const suggestedStrategy = versionUtils.suggestStrategy(workspace.manifest.version, this.strategy);
+        // `resolveVersionFiles` (used during `version apply`) bases the bump on
+        // `stableVersion ?? version` when `stableVersion` is set. The strategy
+        // suggested here must be expressed against the same base, otherwise a
+        // strategy like `patch` that fits `version` (`1.3.1-alpha` → `1.3.1`)
+        // would later be applied to `stableVersion` (`1.2.1` → `1.2.2`).
+        const baseVersion = workspace.manifest.raw.stableVersion ?? workspace.manifest.version;
+        const suggestedStrategy = versionUtils.suggestStrategy(baseVersion, this.strategy);
 
         if (suggestedStrategy !== null) {
           releaseStrategy = suggestedStrategy;