diff --git a/conformance/third_party/conformance.exp b/conformance/third_party/conformance.exp
index 837cb9cb1d..152be6c778 100644
--- a/conformance/third_party/conformance.exp
+++ b/conformance/third_party/conformance.exp
@@ -11025,17 +11025,6 @@
       "stop_column": 17,
       "stop_line": 22
     },
-    {
-      "code": -2,
-      "column": 7,
-      "concise_description": "Type variable `T3` in class `Protocol2` is declared as invariant, but could be contravariant based on its usage",
-      "description": "Type variable `T3` in class `Protocol2` is declared as invariant, but could be contravariant based on its usage",
-      "line": 41,
-      "name": "variance-mismatch",
-      "severity": "warn",
-      "stop_column": 16,
-      "stop_line": 41
-    },
     {
       "code": -2,
       "column": 7,
diff --git a/conformance/third_party/conformance.result b/conformance/third_party/conformance.result
index ff37e9423a..4e97a0b626 100644
--- a/conformance/third_party/conformance.result
+++ b/conformance/third_party/conformance.result
@@ -144,6 +144,7 @@
   "protocols_self.py": [],
   "protocols_subtyping.py": [],
   "protocols_variance.py": [
+    "Line 41: Expected 1 errors",
     "Line 15: Unexpected errors ['Unexpected keyword argument `contravariant` to ParamSpec']"
   ],
   "qualifiers_annotated.py": [],
diff --git a/conformance/third_party/results.json b/conformance/third_party/results.json
index 2533501bc8..d616143d15 100644
--- a/conformance/third_party/results.json
+++ b/conformance/third_party/results.json
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
   "pass": 140,
   "fail": 5,
   "pass_rate": 0.97,
-  "differences": 23,
+  "differences": 24,
   "passing": [
     "aliases_explicit.py",
     "aliases_implicit.py",
@@ -151,7 +151,7 @@
     "annotations_future_import.py": 2,
     "generics_paramspec_variance.py": 9,
     "generics_typevartuple_variance.py": 9,
-    "protocols_variance.py": 1
+    "protocols_variance.py": 2
   },
   "comment": "@generated"
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/pyrefly/lib/alt/solve.rs b/pyrefly/lib/alt/solve.rs
index c46b158ddf..9e7ac531ec 100644
--- a/pyrefly/lib/alt/solve.rs
+++ b/pyrefly/lib/alt/solve.rs
@@ -3977,16 +3977,22 @@ impl<'ctx, 'answer, Ans: LookupAnswer> AnswersSolver<'ctx, 'answer, Ans> {
         // with a narrower variance. We only check invariant TypeVars here
         // because wrong variance on covariant/contravariant TypeVars is
         // already caught by InvalidVariance at the usage site.
+        // Constrained TypeVars are excluded because invariance is a sound default for a fixed
+        // set of constraints, and the narrower-variance suggestion is usually noise.
         let metadata = self.get_metadata_for_class(class);
         if metadata.is_protocol()
-            && tparams
-                .as_vec()
-                .iter()
-                .any(|p| p.is_type_var() && p.variance() == PreInferenceVariance::Invariant)
+            && tparams.as_vec().iter().any(|p| {
+                p.is_type_var()
+                    && p.variance() == PreInferenceVariance::Invariant
+                    && !matches!(p.restriction(), Restriction::Constraints(_))
+            })
         {
             let inferred = self.infer_variance_ignoring_declared(class);
             for tparam in tparams.as_vec() {
-                if !tparam.is_type_var() || tparam.variance() != PreInferenceVariance::Invariant {
+                if !tparam.is_type_var()
+                    || tparam.variance() != PreInferenceVariance::Invariant
+                    || matches!(tparam.restriction(), Restriction::Constraints(_))
+                {
                     continue;
                 }
                 let inferred_v = inferred.get(tparam.name());
diff --git a/pyrefly/lib/test/variance_inference.rs b/pyrefly/lib/test/variance_inference.rs
index 6a27fb8d2f..4ac4c22f3e 100644
--- a/pyrefly/lib/test/variance_inference.rs
+++ b/pyrefly/lib/test/variance_inference.rs
@@ -605,6 +605,21 @@ class Foo(Generic[T_co]):
 "#,
 );
 
+testcase!(
+    test_constrained_typevar_protocol_variance_mismatch,
+    r#"
+from typing import Protocol, TypeVar
+
+T = TypeVar("T", str, bytes)
+
+class Foo(Protocol[T]):
+    def value(self) -> T: ...
+
+class Bar(Protocol[T]):
+    def consume(self, x: T) -> None: ...
+"#,
+);
+
 testcase!(
     test_shallow_contravariant_in_return,
     r#"